Category Archives: web 2.0

Web 2.0 – Dale Dougherty, O’Reilly Media, Inc.

Web 2.0 – High Order Bit
Dale Dougherty, O’Reilly Media, Inc.
10/7/04 O’Reilly is proud to announce that we have developed hacked books. With SafariU (www.safariu.com), we’ve allowed teachers to create, publish, and share teaching material. It allows professors to hack textbooks to create custom books by using multiple sources. If you do a search for a subject, and find a chapter from a book you want to include, just select it and add it to the table of contents for your hacked book. The pricing mechanism is based upon the number of pages printed. We have a 100 page minimum.

Make.oreilly.com is a magazine filled with do it yourself projects. It’s Martha Stewart for geeks. She recovered arts and crafts and make it important again and brought it back into the present. Popular Science and Mechanics of the 50s felt like hacking (mostly farm implements). This is a quarterly magazine. We have an example of how to make your own setup for kite a erial photography – your eye in the sky. The author claims to ‘own 250 feet’ because airplanes can’t get that low, so you can take pictures of the tops of buildings. This magazine teaches technology like we use cooking – make something and then share it with others.

We’re also working on an open source photo notes project to go with the magazine.. Which creates digital anotation of photos from projects. You can record on the project or comment on other projects (on the website for the magazine). It gives a sense of collaboration. We use the open source annotation of jpgs (which has been adopted by Flickr).

Web 2.0 – From the Labs (Google, IBM, Microsoft)

Web 2.0 – From the Labs
Peter Norvig, Ph.D., Google
Richard Rashid, Ph.D., Microsoft
Jim Spohrer, IBM Jim:
IBM has worldwide labs. What you might not now is that we collaborate with research facilities around the world in research and development activities. We’re working on measuring the spin of a single atom which will allow microscope to do 3D imaging of molecules. Blue Jean is the fastest computer in the world and is working on the protein holding problem.

IBM is working to establish service science. 50% of our revenue comes from the services business. 50% of GE’s revenue comes from their services business. Product companies are turning into services companies. The whole global economy is doing this. Why? The labor foce is shifting into services. But the educational world isn’t doing enough to teach about services innovation.

Peter:
We’re working on statistical machine language translation. We’re using named entities and world clusters to allow the computer to understand meaning better. Our machine translation takes one language in and outputs another language. We’re using a statistical approach which takes into account phrases, templates, discriminative training and lots of data. Our Arabic to English translation is not quite fluent, but it is completely understandable.

Demo of named entities: We break text into sentences and then match sentences against patterns. We discard noisy data and regularize over names. We also use the relations of concepts and the nesting sets of concepts to understand the concepts.

Richard:
Microsoft is working on empowering the individual through the democratization of science and enabling new forms of social information. We have terraserver which is a 98 terabyte web database. Also, skyserver.sdss.org which is a server and services that includes information from worldwide astronomy databases (such as iova.net and skyquery.net). We’re working with the NIH (National Instititute of Health) to create a central database of their published works called PubMed. Also, wwmx.org and wallop.com.

Web 2.0 – Mitch Kapor, Open Source Applications Foundation

Web 2.0 – High Order Bit
Mitch Kapor
Founder and Chair, Open Source Applications Foundation
10/7/04 We’re going to take a look at what’s wrong with politics and how technology can help. We have a broken political system. In the past we’ve gotten rewards for the types of businesses that thrive in the valley. We’re the people that the system works for, but how do we make the system work for everyone?

Our country was founded on the principle of self government. In our government today, that idea is in great peril. Is self government a meaningful concept in 2004?

It was meaningful to the ancient Greeks. Those traditions were an inspiration to the founders of our country. We might not call them founders but entrepreneurs of democracy. If you could re-animate them in Washington DC today, what would they think? They would be horrified. Our government is corrupt and deeply dysfunctional. We have 13 registered lobbyists for each elected representative. The real deals are made out of sight and money is what buys influence.

Who’s buying the politicians? Corporations would rather play the game of the system rather than make something work in a true market economy. Wrongly conducted businesses is not the sole cause of the problems, but things have gotten highly out of control. We were not meant to have a highly centralized government. We should have a system of checks and balances, but the American citizen is dropping out. We’ve seen voter registration go up for this election. Is this a sign of the beginning of a turnaround or just one event?

The local level is even worse. 10-20% of the popular vote will put a mayor in office. The current system makes people feel alienated. Politics tries to manipulate, not engage. We have to hope that the damage is not yet too great. Apathy and alienation is dangerous.

Is politics broken? Yes. Does technology have a role in fixing it? Yes, in part. Technology has broken some problems. Broadcast media is one of the biggest problems. The Net and Open Source can give us inspiration in how to revitalize politics. In the Howard Dean campaign, which ended all too soon, we saw the use of the Net to mobilize and communicate. Moveon.org goes right to the voters to help change politics. We represent the 1st generation of online community where large and complex problems have been solved without strong centralization. If Thomas Paine was alive today, he would have written Uncle Tom’s Cabin on a Linux laptop.

Open Source is based on a practice that integrates a set of tools and principles. The Wikipedia is a free, high quality encyclopedia with 400,000 articles. It has thousands of contributers. It is useful and quite stable, despite the fact that any page can be accessed by anyone at anytime. There are an extensive set of principles that people in the community have agreed to be governed by. There is transparency in being able to see the source code and all the bugs and notes of design.

Today we don’t know when governmental staff meet or when lobbyists meet them. Government information is increasingly less available due to security concerns. It doesn’t have to be that way. Bloggers in the left and right have begun to hold government more accountable.

The challenges we have today are to develop the tools and community practices. Regardless of who wins this election, we need a fundamental change to repair the system and that is not going to come from the political establishment from either party. We need a popular reform movement, which is internet based and includes a broad representation of the American people. This prospect invites our close attention and participation as technologists, business people and citizens.

Web 2.0 – Lessons Learned, Futures Predicted

Web 2.0 – Lessons Learned, Futures Predicted
Dan Rosenweig, CEO Yahoo!
Marc Andreessen, Chairman & Cofounder Opsware, Inc., co-founder Netscape
John Battalle, journalist
10/6/04 John:
What mistakes were made that have been repeated?

Dan:
How much got done and how much was created. There were a lot of mistakes in stupid people doing stupid things, but a lot of energy creation. Doors opened up with Netscape and things got ahead of themselves. Greed ruined things faster than it should have.

Mark:
The same mistakes keep being made over and over for the next 3,000 years. But there is an unending opportunity in this industry. There are an unending number of ideas we can explore. We’re lucky to live in an environment that allows us to.

John:
Let’s start at the beginning. Yahoo has a browser. What do you think of the future of the browser?

Mark:
The most amazing thing about the past was that Microsoft got a monopoly in the browser market and then didn’t use it. They didn’t do what they did with software for the web. They have an Internet services without using the leverage of their browser – it’s just the default search and homepage.

Everything that they did in the 90s was illegal according to the government. It’s amazing that they haven’t done more creative things – creative manipulations to software APIs to take out their competitors. We have a whole generation of Internet companies and 90% of people are still coming into these from the Microsoft browser.

John:
In terms of the browser, RSS has become huge. Where might it go? Integration point of the browser and server?

Mark:
There are lots of things you can do. Netscape had a long list. Browser innovation stopped in 1998. Firefox is getting attention and Safari has started innovation again after 6 years of nothing. Microsoft will respond. They love to screw with other businesses.

Dan:
Well don’t keep waking them up! Innovation will come around services and the user experience. It’ll be about what people can get and what they really want. Early Netscape things have come to fruition now. From a competitor standpoint, the more we try to cage people, the less likely they are to stay in the cage. RSS is a big part of My Yahoo! We have 200 million to 300 million people using it per month. Just when people thought it was all over.

John:
Are you going to create client software for Yahoo?

Don:
We’ve done well without it. But music needs it, messenger needs it. There are things you can do with a client that you can’t do on the web. But without connecting it together, its irrelevant. Yahoo now has a browser!

John:
We spoke earlier about owning data being the new lock-in. Do you see that happening?

Mark:
We saw this in the 1990s. The power of the web is about sharing things without permission. That’s an energizer for innovation. Open source has compounded that at the code and protocol level. Software is more and more open.

John:
Yahoo vs. Google. You guys have registered users and Google does not. How does that affect things?

Dan:
Data is essential in this industry. We’re moving from a world of mass media to a world of my media. This is the core of what data can help drive. But data lock-up is a situation that leaves companies vulnerable. When someone finally unlocks the data, the company falls apart. Like online travel services, they own the data and operate through contracts.

Mark:
This is coming from a company that said tell us how to use APIs and maybe we’ll give you some.

John:
When do you see a Yahoo API suite?

Dan:
We can’t do everything over night. We can’t just change everything. Yahoo has tried over the past 3 years to become more open and more accessible. We’re far from perfect but that’s the direction we’re moving in.

Mark:
There’s a striking list of things you can’t do yet. You can’t take a profile from one place and put it somewhere else. Online email transfer from one service to another is impossible. Patterns are setting up towards high levels of data lock-in. As strong a form of lock-in as with software licenses.

John:
What about small businesses which are allowing you to share?

Mark:
There are a lot of ifs ands and buts. Like social bookmarks. Lots of people have gotten rich legally by putting in terms of service and technological restrictions. Yahoo has been more open than most. Most large Internet companies are closed. The business advantage is huge. I’d say we have a 10 year lock-in at least.

John:
Consumers have strange habits with technology. Never start a media business that assumes that consumers are going to change their habits for you. That’s a difficult business to be in. Is that still true? Can you start something that gets people out of their current habits? With a 10 year data lock, we should start something tomorrow to get around it?

Dan:
Search can change habits. No one is required to do anything. At the end of the day, better products and services win out. Certain companies have an advantage. Small companies have a different advantage. Business is business. There are share shifters that have really valuable services for long term value and monetary investment.

Mark:
The cellular and mobile business shows a future. Globally they have a huge number of units. The hot cellular vendor switches fairly quickly. There is no brand loyalty or lock-in with so much innovation. Search engines had an avalanche of switching when new ones came out. There is so much information and so many different communitities for ideas to spread virally, we’ll see a lot of turnover of brands and services. Marketing people don’t expect people to shift behavior, but we’ve already seen shifts with Internet and mobile phones. Marketing insisted that people wouldn’t use mobile phones until the sound quality was good. With mp3s there were lots of hoops to jump and lots of people jumped, even breaking the law to use them. People are willing to try new things without marketing or advertising. Consumers are getting more and more aggressive to seek what they want.

Dan:
It’s too easy to change, so most people do. The technology barriers that existed when Mark started his company don’t exist today. You can leverage technology and experience together. Just don’t make it hard because people are willing to do it.

John:
The big debate of the late 90s was Netscape vs. Microsoft. Microsoft fought bitterly because of this idea of a Net OS. This idea has come back?

Mark:
Microsoft won’t notice this time (joke).

John:
In a Web OS, will Google be one of the principle actors?

Mark:
This is fascinating because Google is being led by the nose, willing or unwilling, into a direct confrontation with Microsoft. Everyone is spoiling for a fight. Sun has been frustrated by Microsoft. They took a swing at them and ended up being hit by Linux instead. It’s not clear where the actual competition between Google and Microsoft is yet. But the ecosystem is pushing this. The Google guys are smart and creative, and I’m sure they’ll find ways of dealing with this. I’m not sure what form the battle will take, but Google will probably do some surprising things.

Dan:
We’ve been talking about technology, software and Web Os. But you should turn it around and ask what do the users want. Better companies will get in front of what the users want. It’s someone else’s problem if people want a fight. Make sure you’re doing what is relevant to want users want. Technology talk is fun and great for blogs, but we need to focus on the consumer.

John:
Consumers are reading blogs.

Dan:
Just don’t get whipped up on what so and so says. Stock prices can’t control you. Just create value over time.

Mark:
Platforms are great when they work. You can build on top of someone else’s platform if you have access to APIs and code. There are an interesting set of questions with respect to platform and OS vendors. Musicmatch and ipod can’t connect with each other. As these problems shake out, we’ll see a channeling effect.

John:
You’ve both built companies. With this experience, where would you building your next company?

Dan:
There’s this new notion of my-media and publishing when you want. The web is the most selfish medium ever created. We’re going to start to see the linkage of things from the desktop to the web and in other devices. The web is going to become ubiquitous.

Mark:
If you take a look at the number of users on the Internet, the cost has declined to build an Internet business. Bandwidth is falling in price. The people price is falling. On the business model side, we’ve cracked the code on advertising as an industry. There is 10 times the amount of revenue you can recover as before.

Dan:
There used to be only 3 or 4 companies that could take in ad revenue. Now, anyone can.

Question:
In RSS space, there’s a building momentum behind the roach motel strategy. Meta data goes in, but it never comes out. Are you committed to open source for meta data?

Dan:
We won’t commit to anything. There are a lot of issues around data… privacy, security and business issues. We’ll take more time than people want us to. But we’ll all surrender to what the user wants.

Web 2.0 – Mary Meeker, The Internet in China

Web 2.0 – High Order Bit – The Internet in China
Mary Meeker, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
10/6/04 China is the most populous country in the world and the top priority for China’s leaders is long term, sustainable economic growth with relatively high levels of employment. Technology is the designated vehicle for driving growth and the Internet is at the core of technological innovation. However, there are many disruptive forces, challenges and risks to face. You can get a copy of the 5 year or 10 year plans the Chinese government puts out.

In technological adoption, China is second in the world with 87 million users, and they are likely to be number one within 5 years. South Korea has a broadband penetration of 70%. Shanda networking has 236 million registered gamer accounts (non unique in China). Ringtones has a $3+ billion annual market. 1 out of every 6 phones is a picture phone. Apple has 70% of online paid music market.

11 Points to the Internet in China:

1 – The number of connected users is significant and growing rapidly. Mobile phones, cable and telephone connectivity will be significant.

2 – The relative web site usage momentum is strong (Alexa).

3 – The next generation is very active on the Internet (70% under 30 years old).

4 – Online media development is in the early growth stages.

5 – Wireless messaging services are ramping up quickly, although transitions are occurring.

6 – Broadband acceptance is growing rapidly.

7 – E-commerce is in the very early stages and governors exist. There are poor credit systems, inefficient logistic and transportation systems, low levels of trust and low levels of expendable money.

8 – Challenges for multinational companies create opportunities for Chinese companies.

9 – The third generation Internet entrepreneurs are impressive. Even with broad-based experience, leadership is not abundant. Management experience is low.

10 – Sustainability of Internet-related revenue and profits is still unproven, but the market opportunity is large.

11 – The government is focused on ramping up the Internet, in part to boost domestic and global trade.

Web 2.0 – James Currier, Tickle, Inc.

Web 2.0 – High Order Bit
James Currier, CEO, Tickle, Inc.
10/6/04 James is also the VP for Consumer Services for Monster.com. As far as he knows, they are the only ones to make a business into consumer psychology and insight. People are using the web for social uses, not just for work anymore. Thousands of personality tests are taken each day on Tickle.com. Tickle offers self assessment tests, matchmaking and social network. It has 14 million active users, and 200 million tests have been taken. Consumers want someone to dig into their psychology for them.

We have five insights into the web consumer.

1 – It’s all about me (tell me about me). They want to hear about it all day long and never get sick of it. They want you to know them and appreciate them. The web, unlike other types of media, allows you to make a mirror. The web is about me, other media is about other people. Web 2.0 is about connecting with people at the identity level. Reflect information to people about what they’re up to and how they fit in. Consumers will expect this over time.

2 – Sex and work, work and sex. Our sites focus on these two needs.

3 – Your mind is different than your consumers’. You need to get out of yourself to understand the soccer mom. People in this room are a very unique type of person. Our minds think about power, technology, knowledge, code, gadgets, work, money (in bills), and sex. Our consumers think about puppies, babies, God, Nascar, celebrities, money (in coins), sex.

4 – Psychology changes over time. Consumers are more willing to use their credit cards on the web and to share personal information and personal photos. This has changed over the past 3 years. Match.com has matched consumers’ psychological shift over the last 12 months. You need to understand where your consumers are and understand where to launch applications.

5 – Understand consumers’ motivations. For instance, the propensity to buy vs. age. 25 year old males are worried about competition, 35 year old males and females are looking for understanding, and 51 year old females are looking for affirmation.

Tickle is occupying the old DEC building at Maynard. We’re seeing 2 world colliding in the business model of Monster.com and the psychology of Tickle.com. How do we take these insights and apply that to big business. Match making is a 0 margin business right now. People want us to tell them where to go when they’re in the midst of a life changing decision. They want more intelligence in the process they’re involved in. We’re taking matchmaking techniques and applying them to jobs. People have 11 job changes on average over their lifetimes. $100 billion is lost each year in stress related activities. If we can help people make better decisions and have less stress, we can make both big businesses and their employees more happy in the long run.

Web 2.0 – Dave Sifry, Technorati, Inc.

Web 2.0 – High Order Bit
Dave Sifry, Technorati, Inc.
Founder and CEO
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10/6/04 State of the Blogosphere

Our web service tracks what’s happening on the web right now in the world of weblogs. There are 4.1 million blogs that we’re tracking. The median time from post to index is 7 minutes. Weblogs are like the exhaust of personal attention streams. Who is linked to who is an indication of authority. When links are created to a site, that person becomes and influencer.

What are people saying about my company and my products? What are my competitors saying? What are people saying about the political cycle?

We think about the web in a different way. The current motivation is that the web is the biggest library. A place with lots of indexed information. Yahoo! did the card catalog. Google did the citation index. But what’s going on in the library?

Weblogs are a fundamental change in how you think of the web. The web is changing. It is now part of the social fabric of our society. Look at a weblog and see what they’re doing over time. Look at what everyone’s talking about over time.

How do you make sense of weblogs? There’s the Google rank idea. How many people are linking to you. That’s an indicator of your authoratativeness, but not an indicator of truthfulness. When links are created, before other people are linking to them, that person is an influencer and may be a topic expert.

There’s a way to do this automatically.

The blogosphere is growing. The slowest we’ve seen it double is every 5 months. There is a new weblog every 7.4 seconds. English is no longer 50% of weblog space, but still the largest plurality. Weblogs’ posts/day follow when major events are going on. There’s a 45% abandonment rate after 6 months. There are about 4 posts per second. In the current political environment, more people are posting on politics. We’ve seen a jump in activity after the Dean scream, the Nick Berg beheading, US political conventions, and Cryptonite lock story.

With the Cryptonite lock story, we saw postings 5 days before the mainstream press took it up. There were videos of how to unlock the lock and lots of link love. Cryptonite was completely clueless until the mainstream press picked it up.

Weblogs are getting more influence. And it’s increasing. People still trust the mainstream media, but blogs are coming up. We’re also seeing the rise of corporate blogs, although these are still only a small sliver. The proliferation of RSS in still low, at only 31.2% of all blogs. And only 28.2% of all rss feeds are full text. The more people who link to you, the more likely it is that you have a rss feed. A RSS feed gives people more ways to pay attention to you.

What’s next?
Attention.xml to make it easier for rss readers. Technorati API to make it easy for web developers. Synthetic feeds and watchlists. We have a hackathon tonight at 665 3rd street, suite 207.

Web 2.0 – Marc Benioff, SalesForce.com

Web 2.0 – A Conversation of Marc Benioff, Salesforce.com
with John Battelle
10/6/04 John:
Marc’s a little gun-shy about saying things in public forums because of the SEC and their quiet period. But this is being webcast and streamed to the saleforce site so everyone can see it. What happened during your quiet period?

Marc:
As with Google, and any high profile company, there are a number of issues you have to be aware of that you didn’t have to before. But at least we didn’t give an interview to Playboy. We announced our customer and subscriber numbers today. We have about 185,000 subscribers and have 12,000 customers. Our problem know is how we’re going to make those customers successful and grow the business to show that this is a new paradigm and a new platform.

John:
I know you have opinions about the SEC and the quiet period. What do you think of the process? Can the new paradigm stand? All eyes are on a company, but they can’t communicate.

Marc:
Reuters did an interview with the SEC Chairman and he said that a lot of these rules came from a time when communication was a lot different than today. And they’re going to take a good hard look at that.

John:
What type of advice do you have about that?

Marc:
I’m a software executive, I’m not planning on running for office. I am co-chairman for ptech which is the President’s advisory board on technology. We analyze trends and see if the government is funding the right things. We recently posted the health care report. I can’t understand Washington DC. It took me 2 decades to understand Silicon Valley.

John:
Do you find the ptech process invigorating?

Marc:
Ptech is the most fascinating thing I’ve done. I get to hang out with top computer scientists. You can really see the huge amount of change happening in the depth of technology itself and the potential of it. It’s up to us to harness it. Security has a lot of work in it. We’re benefiting today as an industry from the tremendous amount of research which was funded by the government decades ago. We need to radically increase some of those areas of research to keep the pole position.

John:
Google had an auction process in their IPO. Did you consider that and did you think that was revolutionary?

Marc:
I’m a very naive person in this stuff. I thought the auction was supposed to create efficient Market price so the company received the correct Market valuation. That was not the impression I got with the Google IPO. I don’t think the auction process worked as they would have liked.

John:
In the space you inhabit, what is it about this space (the IT industry) that creates these characters when software is so pedestrian? Such as Oracle and all the ego jousting that goes on in this industry.

Marc:
You see that in a lot of companies. IBM executives have created tremendous things. They have a secret network that makes deals with each other. Lots of other executives are doing things too. Microsoft has incredible people but you haven’t seen the same spread of executives as you have seen elsewhere running next generation companies.

John:
We have Larry Ellison and the SEC Chairman yachting against each other. This is theatrics. You’re good at it too. Your company is successful in its own right. In the midst of the 2001 bust, you had a party that felt like 1999. We asked Henne about your model, about software as a service. He said that they’re looking at it but revenues are huge over here.

Marc:
That’s the same comment we’ve heard before. Larry saw software service before anyone, but Oracle has a hard time executing because they’re so invested in their software ecosystems. It is a technology opportunity, Marketing opportunity, business model opportunity and distribution opportunity. There are many dimensions and you have to execute across all of them. The problem is how. When I started my company, I had conversations with all these guys. None of them took it forward with veraciousness that we did because it’s hard with a big company. Oracle is driving an aircraft carrier, not a speed boat.

John:
In a perfect world where the world turns and see your vision of software enterprise. When they realize that, what does the industry look like? Great vertical stacks of services or what?

Marc:
The industry will be much bigger. We’re on the threshold of the greatest opportunity in the history of the Tech Industry. You just need the ability to execute on that. The industry has the ability. When you look at web services, it was a big change of how technology was architected. Client-server computing was over a decade ago. We saw the browser emerge 10 years ago. It’s a whole new game and web pages are the repository of your data, living in a browser or on some other device. This is a radical departure from only a few years ago. When I look at that and the potential of new applications, we’re looking at the surface of birth of the software industry colliding with traditional Internet computing.

John:
With ptech and the CFOs of traditional companies, they seem very conservative and don’t want to try anything new. The new Web OS feels new. Salesforce is new. These guys rather spend 10 times more with Henne and SAP. What do you say?

Marc:
That’s the curve of technology adoption of Jeff Moore. If you’re scared by that you shouldn’t be in the industry. The people in this room are at the beginning of the curve. Most people in IT have no idea what this is yet. That’s how new businesses are made. That’s the power of our industry. If you can catch on to a paradigm, you’ll have the tiger by the tail. We can see the potential.

Web 2.0 – Tim O’Reilly and John Battelle

Web 2.0 – Web as a Platform
The State of the Internet Industry
10/5/04

John Battelle, Battelle Media
Tim O’Reilly, O’Reilly Media, Inc.
(not a transcript)

Tim:
The old software stack consists of proprietary software, hardware and hardware lock-in. The web stack consists of proprietary software, integration of components and data lock-in. We need to migrate down to data suppliers and up to companies achieving network effects.

John:
The architecture of participation is seen in google, flickr, ebay where they let the user build the content which creates network effects.

John:
The architecture of participation is seen in google, flickr, ebay where they let the user build the content which creates network effects.

Tim:
Amazon overlays network effects on a commodity business. Data is the Intel Inside. The networked world must standardize. Software apis are no longer the lock in point (microsoft vs. msn). The control of data, databases, namespaces is the advantage now, provided by companies such as navteq, mapquest, cddb, network solutions, adwords, ebay.

John:
There’s innovation in assembly and value in aggregating, managing, analyzing, and creating simplicity out of complexity. Companies such as dell, spikesource and rojo are doing this.

Tim:
In our Safari web based subscription service, we’re looking to deconstruct books and allow professors to create custom text books and companies to provide custom corporate data sets. Why buy 10 books when you can put the data you need into 1?

John:
Lightweight business models where distribution, development and AOP means new generation. Amazon and ebay vs. walmart. Google and Yahoo news vs. New York Times.

Tim:
We’re seeing the end of software upgrade cycles. It has taken Microsoft over 5 years to get to Longhorn. The web is constantly updating in a launch and iterate cycle. Companies such as salesforce, itunes, firefox, quicken use the web as their upgrade platform. We’re seeing enriched service through IMs and boards.

The ipod is software above the level of a single device, designed from the getgo to go from hardware to the web in an integrated application.

John:
The Power of the Tail – the force of many. 1 million sites with 1000 users is far more powerful than 100 sites with a million users. 100,000 bands selling 5000 albums not 50 bands selling 1 million albums. This has brought independent bands and record labels straight to their listeners. Adsense has brought advertising to the small companies.

Tim:
The Tail is growing. Just look at Amazon and all the users developing from their api and selling on their sites.